Wednesday, October 17, 2012

The October 16 Debate-- the President is Back on Track!!!

I’m trying to remember if I was as stressed out in 2008 as I have been this election cycle. Probably not. Whenever I got worried I went to fivethirtyeight.com and Nate Silver calmed me down. The fivethirtyeight.com cure worked this year until the Denver debate and Obama’s poll numbers plummeted. He is still the projected winner but his lead seemed to narrow each day. For first time I really faced the prospect that he might lose.

I was in a state of high anxiety the day of the second debate. I was one of the few people who did not think that Obama’s performance in first debate was anywhere near as bad as most political commentators claimed; also, Romney’s manic spewing forth of lie after lie did not strike me as a great performance. Yes, Obama failed to point out Romney’s lies and yes he seemed tired and disengaged, but the transcript of debate creates a very different impression than the videotape—Obama’s thoughtful answers vs. Romney’s inconsistencies and prevarications.

The Biden/ Ryan debate lifted my spirits but it didn’t seem to produce a lift in the polls and the brief euphoria I felt after the VP debate quickly faded.

Oh what a difference last night’s debate made!!! The president was back on track,and once again the leader who inspired so many of us in 2008 and who has delivered for us in office.

Yesterday was very good day—Obama won the debate and the Supreme Court ruled that early voting could proceed in Ohio.

I slept well last night—no waking up in the middle of the night worrying about the election. The president is back on track to win this one!!!

5 comments:

  1. I fervently hope you're right, Karen! Sidestepping our very different views of Obama's first debate performance and its contribution to Romney's subsequent (if not consequent) rise in polling, I'm still in knots about this morning's Gallup report (Romney up six points among likely voters) and Silver's (updated today) electoral college estimate: Obama 287.2 and Romney 250.8. These next few weeks are going to be tension-ridden and I'm going to try to emulate your sanguine outlook while continuing in my admiration for your activism, which I suspect supports your hard-earned optimism. Take care, Reni

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  2. Actually after a brief period of euphoria, I am no longer sanguine.

    I saw the same numbers you saw today, so am back to biting my nails.

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  3. From Fran Waksler:

    You capture my feelings exactly.

    I don't think I was this stressed out in 2008 for two reasons: First, while I really wanted Obama to win, I feared it was something of a long shot. Second, while I disliked McCain, I thought at least he had some principles and we knew roughly what we would get if he was elected. This time, I am terrified of what Romney would do as president and, furthermore, I have no idea what that might be.

    I thought Biden did a wonderful job, and I too was a wreck before the second debate, but I was very impressed with what Obama did.

    I check the electoral college polls daily, and although the discrepancies among them is disconcerting, there are certainly positive signs.

    Thank you for giving words to what I have been thinking.

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  4. Though the only poll that'll matter is still weeks away, I thought you might take some comfort from Silver's analysis of the Gallup findings, Karen. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/?hp

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